Politics can be mean. If you, as a candidate, stumble, you're likely to see your supporters morph quickly into a wolf pack going for your jugular. American politics may be vicious and fickle, but the rough and tumble of campaigns separates the endurance runners from the political blokes.

Howard Dean's rise and fall are astonishing, but his fortune and failure offer potent lessons in political survival. First, political success requires constant attention to your constituents. You can never take front-runner status for granted. Hubris is lethal. One mistake, one faltering step, one foolish phrase can place you under the hooves of the stampeding throng as they turn and race towards someone else.

It is easy to become enthralled with your own rhetoric, but much more difficult to realize when that rhetoric has become a millstone around your campaign. Governor Dean's fire struck a strong chord with core Democratic voters. Then those same voters began to focus, instead, on which candidate could beat President Bush. Suddenly, Dean's "fire" became a "temper", his rage obscured his policies, and his supporters dumped him for Senator John Kerry. Kerry's message may not be as exciting, but he looks more like a winner against an incumbent who is betting his future on national security.

A successful politician is much like an expert fisherman. She not only knows how to hook the fish, but also how to play it. As long as the fish is swimming towards her, she reels in. But, when the fish changes course, she stops reeling, tracks it's new direction, and gives slack, waiting to see what the fish will do next, knowing it may break the line and flee if she doesn't handle it carefully.

Politics requires the finesse of that expert fisherman -- the sensitivity to gauge what the electorate is looking for and the ability to act on it. This doesn't mean changing your positions as the winds shift. But, it does mean having the sense to monitor the public mood and alter tactics in order to effectively communicate your message. You may need to move from anger to persuasion, or from television to the Internet, never dropping your values, but presenting them differently. Governor Dean lost track of the pulse - he reeled in when he should have given slack - and the line to his supporters snapped. They took off after a candidate, Senator John Kerry, who seemed more in tune with their hopes.

Next, you must be clear about who you are. Throughout his race for the presidency, Vice President Gore struggled to define himself. His inability to convey confidence in himself and comfort with the person he is confused the voters. They turned to someone who seemed at ease with himself, even if they didn't agree with all his positions. Being phony is a sure turn-off. In the rush to be one of the guys, the presidential candidates must be wary of looking like fakes.

Finally, you have to be resilient and persistent. As a candidate in 1992, Bill Clinton had more knock-down hits than almost any politician in history. Yet, he continued to bounce back from shame and scandal to win two terms as President. He never gave up believing in himself or staying in touch with the voters. Over and over, he figured out how to manage political catastrophes so that most voters continued to believe in him, too.

Whether Howard Dean can bounce back from his failures remains to be seen. Regardless, the new frontrunner, Senator John Kerry, must understand the lessons that have eluded Governor Dean. That being on top is shaky at best. That maintaining personal contact with voters and understanding their needs is critical. And that persistence and self-confidence are keys to success.

The winner of this Democratic slugfest must continue to articulate a vision of what he will do better than President Bush, and why that is important to voters. He must manage his followers so they don't turn on him if he falters -- and falter he will. It will be his ability to fight back from these rough encounters that will give voters the confidence they need in his ability to lead.